Diversification and Democracy.
Ending the rule of material wealth over Russian politics.
Disclaimer
This article predates the academic, citation, and sourcing standards I established during the 2025 housekeeping update. While it reflects my research and intent at the time, it may not fully align with Russia Tomorrow’s current formatting or sourcing expectations.
Throughout the years of Russian existence, it has become apparent that one of the most effective tools of the ever-lasting autocracy is Russia’s focus on its material wealth. With the economy controlled mainly by a single element, it is easy for an aspiring government to seize control of that aspect, granting them influence over the nation and its economy. This phenomenon leads to a prominent and necessary solution - the Russian economy must be rapidly diversified. However, these economic ideas bring back thoughts of Russia’s post-Soviet depression and financial mismanagement. This diversification will have to be carried out delicately and with a lack of mismanagement; otherwise, it would threaten the stability and legitimacy of Russia’s young democracy.
The blog's structure will list areas of the Russian market that could be key players in this diversification plan.
Material Wealth
Russian exports have been historically dominated by products from its rich and vast landscapes. From the enormous nothingness of Siberia to the mountainous peaks in the Caucasus, Russia produces unbelievable amounts of resources. However, due to the process of privatization following the collapse of the Soviet system, control of these vast assets fell into the hands of a few oligarchs that became key players in the political field. This corrupt division of resources was a vital step in the authoritarian cookbook, leading to today’s powerful dictatorship. Any future democratic government wishing to survive will have to free this robust industry from the oligarchs and ensure healthy competition within the market.
Military Manufacturing
While the military sector is very clearly linked to the powerful dictatorship, it can still bear fruits for a growing Russian economy. Simply scaling down this industry would be disastrous due to its notable employment and economic contribution. Instead, the government should work to once again de-Oligarch the sector and establish a climate of competition. While Russia would likely see a decrease in military funding and orders for new equipment, global markets have shown an increasing need for new equipment as the world continues on its treacherous path. This opportunity, the growing military expenditure worldwide, could be a chance for the new Russian government to re-establish influence and grow its global partnerships. Of course, becoming a significant weapon exporter has its valid concerns and potentially dangerous geopolitical consequences. In the end, this equation will have to be calculated by the democratic government.
Nuclear Energy
Russia (and the larger Soviet Union) was and remained a birthing place for many nuclear technologies. The current government, not missing a chance for more profit and influence, has established a moderately successful system for the export of our atomic technologies. Unlike many other Putin-era systems, this concept has a future following a democratic transition. According to this Economist article, Putin has built a robust nuclear energy presence abroad, with Russia peaking in global atomic exports.
However, in light of Russia’s collapse in geopolitical standing, Putin has sought to weaponize this international cooperation like any other of Russia’s bases of influence. After all, a developing economy (like Indonesia) is already expected to exercise neutrality, as different routes would negatively impact the nation’s bottom line and ability to grow. Now, imagine choosing between a Russian-operated nuclear reactor - the pinnacle of your development and technological presence - continuing to function or having to forgo billions in funding and shut it down.
Suppose a democratic federation wishes to continue building this strong export market, which will continue to grow with the rapidly increasing interest in renewable energy sources. In that case, we will have to take steps to ensure that our atomic cooperation won’t be weaponized at the expense of foreign partners. This will be difficult to achieve, considering the growing mentality that “no treaty with Russia is worth the paper on which it is written” - Otto Von Bismark.
Aviation
Russian aviation has had a strong and historical presence throughout Russia’s modern existence. However, after the spending sprees of the Cold War came to a close and Russia was devastated by economic mismanagement, this once-prospering industry has retreated into the shadows. While it still produces vast arrays of military hardware (types of military planes, missiles, etc.), it fails to create notable commercial planes.
According to this CAPA article, before the war in Ukraine, Russia presented itself as the largest commercial aviation market in Europe. This shows that despite the disappointing domestic industry, Russia still has the lifeblood to support a competitor to Boeing and Airbus. According to this Reuters article, the current sanctions that struck down Russia’s access to foreign jets have caused the regime to invest in domestic designs. This investment could set up the basic structure for a continuation of the policy once a democratic government is established, increasing the industry’s future potential.
Finally, suppose a future democratic Russia was formed and remained reasonably neutral in geopolitics. In that case, the industry could ride the bandwagon of foreign markets seeking to rid themselves of the French and American duopoly. Markets such as Indonesia, India, China, and others spread across Asia and Africa have determined to remove dependence on Boeing and Airbus. The Communist Party of China has already produced a domestic design - the C919. (In this Forbes article, the strength and importance of this jet are questioned; however, even the ability to produce large aircraft is something few global markets possess.) Suppose Russia could exploit this market opening by injecting its domestic plane designs, working with growing manufacturers in developing markets, and spreading its aviation industry. It could regain some of the influence it undoubtedly lost in that case.
Technology
As the Silicon age continues to power on and develop, the Technology industry is becoming more valuable. Using the United States as an example, the Bureau of Labour Statistics estimates that employment in the sector will grow 15% from 2021 to 2031. To put this mind-blowing statistic in a more understandable light, this would create over 600,000 jobs yearly, not including the up to 400,000 openings from “growth and replacement needs.”
However, Putin’s illegal invasion of Ukraine has essentially halted technological development in Russia. To add onto this critical fault, Russia’s technological giant Yandex, which is somewhat surprisingly headquartered in the Netherlands, is rumored to plan to withdraw from the nation. This comes from an official statement from Yandex, which comments on how the company plans to develop its business independently from the Motherland, potentially changing the company name. This, paired with Russia’s growing isolation from global wifi systems and the technological market, will be a significant problem for any democratic government. A democratic Russia will have to take quick steps to rejoin the global internet community and revitalize its technological industry.
Ending
While there are still myriad ways that diversification can and will be achieved, these industries are the front-runners for this necessary step in the democratization process. In the middle of writing this post, it was rightfully pointed out that I neglected to place sources in the first part of the blog, which is why there is such an abrupt increase in links. In the future, I will also look into using/making graphs to translate my ideas and easily represent them visually.
My interest in aviation and technology will likely prompt a much more detailed post on the individual subjects and their potential. This might play out in my current plan of formatting the blog in a “branch” format. Essentially, I would post an extensive post on a broad topic (like this one on the basic concept of diversification) followed by more detailed posts focusing on one part of the more important topic.
I also wrote a small thread on Twitter about aviation, which will probably play into the dedicated piece on the subject. As anyone would know, more than ten Twitter followers are crucial to online advocacy.
