Taking Democracy to the Skies: Aviation
Aviation might prove key in the construction of a new Democratic state.
Disclaimer
This article predates the academic, citation, and sourcing standards I established during the 2025 housekeeping update. While it reflects my research and intent at the time, it may not fully align with Russia Tomorrow’s current formatting or sourcing expectations.
As mentioned in my blog describing diversification, I viewed Russia’s aviation industry with peaked interest. Russia’s historic aerial capabilities, born in the wake of the cold war, have dried up amidst an influx of Boeing and Airbus-produced jets. Aeroflot, the biggest carrier in Russia by far, was seen dumping its Russian-made planes to its many subsidiaries and replacing them with modern Western jets. However, a new wave of isolation brought as a result of the illegal invasion of Ukraine is set to inject a further stroke of life into the domestic industry, as the Kremlin plans to invest billions into the domestic market. This blog post will examine the industry’s detailed capabilities, future, and economic weight. However, before looking toward the end of this historical giant, we must first look back at the past.
The Past
The industry struggled to survive without foreign engines starting during the First World War. By 1916, Russia produced 1893 aircraft while only importing 883; however, Russia only had 920 engines and was forced to import over 2000 foreign models. Even with these manufacturing issues, Russia still produces several capable models even before the outbreak of the great war. Most notably, the Sikorsky Ilya Muromets was the first ever multi-engine plane in production. While initially intended for commercial service, the model became an unavoidable bomber over the Russian battlegrounds, with only one model ever reported as lost during the war. However, production sharply declined after the February revolution and eventually came to a near halt once Russia left the war.
Skipping further ahead over the long and prosperous period of the industry during the isolated Soviet era, we arrive in the last months of the Soviet Union. The Soviet industry was previously scattered across united partner nations - however, as the Soviet Union’s block collapsed, it became increasingly clear that a massive number of assets would be lost. Helicopter plants in Poland and training facilities in Czechoslovakia were no longer under Soviet control. Soon, the facilities in Ukraine, which maintained a ton of the logistical capabilities of the Soviet Union under the Antonov company, had split off.
The Collapse (1991-2000)
Once the break-up of the Soviet Union was complete, the production of civilian jets in Russia collapsed. However, with all my effort to convey this information using a lovely table or chart, it turns out Substack doesn’t have a table feature! Instead, I will be forced to explain it using boring bullet points.
In the late 1980s, the Soviet Union’s commercial aircraft accounted for around 25% of the world’s commercial aircraft.
By 1990, after the collapse of the Union, Russian production of civilian aircraft was down to 715.
By 1998 this collapse had become apparent, with Russia producing only 56 commercial models.
By 2000, Russia’s commercial industry produced four planes. Four.
The commercial aviation (and automobile) industry was kept on life support with highly protective tariffs. Russia underwent an economic crisis, and many models failed to receive the necessary certifications to function in foreign markets. On the other hand, the military industry had found some success in its recovery - relying almost purely on foreign exports as the Russian government had neglected military spending in favor of rebuilding the economy.
The Recovery (2000-2015)
While the commercial industry nearly starved and several significant players were on the doorstep of bankruptcy (notably the Aviastar-SP and Voronezh Aircraft Production Association), a light appeared in the distance. Leasing corporation allegedly began repurchasing Russian models (I couldn’t find that good of a source for this claim), and Russian aircraft began receiving certifications abroad. Then in 2005, Russia’s historic aircraft corporations were merged into one, the United Aircraft Corporation (UAC), in an effort from Putin’s government to revitalize the industry by streamlining production and consolidating resources.
The UAC has become a staple of modern Russian aviation, becoming what Wikipedia calls a “National Champion” - a privately owned company promoted by the government to serve a crucial role in the nation’s economy. The budget of the UAC quickly increased from its 2007 budget of 2 billion rubles to 24 billion just the following year, with the company enjoying massive government support. Deliveries of civilian aircraft quickly rose to five in 2005 and then fifteen by 2009, with a pool of primarily domestic customers, with the industry growing 19.5% in 2009 despite the global economic crisis.
In 2008, the UAC scored a significant victory for civil aviation in Russia - with the Sukhoi Superjet 100, the first civilian plane developed in the young federation, taking flight for the first time. In 2010, the UAC broke American dominance over the production of 5th-generation fighter jets with the maiden flight of its competitor, the Su-57. Russian media described these events as a breakthrough for Russian aviation and Russia’s global presence, claiming that the nation pulled a weight much more significant than its economic one.
Today (Today)
Now, we arrive at the reality of the current day. The grueling war against Ukraine has left Russia isolated, with its newest civilian aircraft - the Irkut MC-21 - being delayed due to a lack of Western engines. Russia’s national airline, Aeroflot, has lost rights to travel across Europe and regions of the Americas, had its membership in Skyteam suspended, and lost a large majority of its routes, only offering travel to Belarus and parts of China. Russian aviation seems doomed to yet another collapse, and Russian airlines are resorting to canalizing some of their planes to keep the rest maintained.
However, while the sky is filled with storm clouds, aircraft can always breach the barrier and soar above the overcast. Russia’s aviation could now find itself in an even more crucial position. Sanctions have shown countries worldwide how much economic power the West holds, capable of shutting down a sprawling industry and the biggest aviation market in Europe. This will undoubtedly make nations who seek greater autonomy from the west, such as neutral states in Southeast Asia, growing African countries, or members of BRICS, uncomfortable when considering purchasing aviation models from Boeing, Airbus, and Bombardier. Due to this uncertainty, a short-lasting but crucial opening has formed for Russian aviation.
Instead of focusing on the full-on competition with Western giants, Russian aviation could find a role akin to Russia’s nuclear energy industry. Rosatom, Russia’s state operator of nuclear power plants and research, has long been a tool of influence in developing countries, with Russia building and growing atomic power plants in countries such as Iran, Indonesia, India, Bangladesh, Egypt, and even European states. By employing a similar model of exporting talent and helping construct local industries, the UAC could build immense influence abroad in places with developing aviation markets, such as Indonesia, and cement its presence and existence. Amidst a period of global isolation and a drain of geopolitical power, such influence will be crucial to Putin’s regime, so such a course of action is likely unavoidable.
Democratic Future
Nothing resembles the Russian opposition movement as a picture of Siberia, an area of peace, calm, and silence. Undisturbed by autocratic regimes in Moscow, this endless plain of snow and ice has stood for millennia. An infinite blanket of white snow, only contrasted by an endlessly blue sky, stretches as far as the eye can see - two colors of Russia’s white-blue-white flag.
Talking about a democratic future as if it is right around the corner is always easy, yet, it is untruthful. While the fight for democracy is raging in Russia, it is only in its early stages and particularly vulnerable to an ever more oppressive regime. The effort to remove Putin’s stronghold on Russia without giving it to another more autocratic leader will be a struggle and setbacks.
Nevertheless, in a future where Russia has successfully transitioned into a democracy, with undeniably large amounts of international aid, the state will face a new challenge. How does one preserve a state of geopolitical influence and power without maintaining the imperial ambitions that defined the autocratic ruling class? The new government will find an easy answer to such a question - build Russia’s social and economic weight to make up for a decreased militaristic one. Instead of building new ICBMs, the budget will go to developing industries and building new cities.
In such a future, the aviation industry will undoubtedly pursue a similar path as described previously; however, now, it will be unhindered by sanctions and actively helped by an economy-focused government. With the prerequisite that Russia will follow a neutral path to rebuild and develop, at least for the first decades of its young democracy, this will allow Russian aviation to enjoy the renewed perk of approachability compared to the industries of Western countries that have been used to sanction and cripple potential enemies. Such an environment would be crucial to rebuilding the previous glory of the historic Russian industry.
Wrapping up
This blog post was quite challenging, considering that the deadline has been pushed back consistently due to outside factors and a growing research scale. If you’ve read all of my writing up to this point - thank you! Whether you agree with my assessment or not, I invite you to comment below or tweet your opinion to me, and I will respond to my ability.
Any feedback regarding my writing, image usage, layout, or other technical elements will be greatly appreciated!
Also, please note the poeticism I employed by starting with a gloomy, dark picture of an Aeroflot jet and ending with a bright one. Reasonably proud of that one.
Poetic pragmatism 🙂